April 25, 2011
by Purchasingb2b Staff
PURCHASINGB2B MAGAZINE: MARCH/APRIL 2011
Beginning in March, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is releasing in a seasonally adjusted format.
For 10 years, the index has used month-end information from all sectors of the Canadian economy and until now has been produced in a raw data format.
Seasonal adjustment corrects for regular, intra-year fluctuations due to factors such as weather, holidays and institutional arrangements. The purpose of seasonally adjusting data is to produce a series that’s more straightforward to analyze at consecutive time intervals, as well as to compare to the movements of other series.
“This 10-year anniversary provides an opportunity to revisit the index and examine the statistical properties of the historical data,” said Michiel Leenders, director, Ivey PMI and professor emeritus.“Analysis has determined that statistically significant seasonality is present in the Ivey PMI. More importantly, it is now possible to estimate reliable seasonal adjustment factors.”
Monthly adjustment factors will be forecast on a recurrent, twelve-month basis starting in March 2011. The unadjusted index will continue to be released along with the seasonally adjusted version. The index is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC).